Thursday, March 02, 2006

Fake CBS poll (and Anna Nicole Smith)

A proven way to get a lot of Web hits is to mention female celebrities like Britney Spears, Paris Hilton, and Pamela Anderson who are perennial Google favorites of guys looking for nude porn pictures and videos. So ....

Q. What do Anna Nicole Smith and the latest CBS News poll have in common?
A. They're both (artificially) STACKED!

The CBS Poll famously showed President Bush's approval numbers at an "all-time low," but at Newsbusters, Brent Baker reports that the poll "lists 409 Democratic respondents versus 272 Republican respondents. CBS 'weighted' the results to effectively count 289 Republicans versus 381Democrats."

Remember that in the past two elections, the party split was about even -- 48-48 in 2000, and 51-48 in 2004.

This CBS poll hugely oversampled Democrats, as Baker's colleague Greg Sheffield explains:

"Total Republicans" contacted: 272 unweighted and 289 weighted. "Total Democrats" contacted: 409 unweighted and 381 weighted. "Total Independents"
contacted: 337 unweighted and 348 weighted. ...

The Pew Research Center for the People and the Press ... shows that in both 2004 and 2005, 30% said they were Republican compared to 33% who said they were Democrats. The new CBS poll (even after being weighted) had a population of only 28% Republicans to 37% Democrats.

Doing the math, the new poll -- even using the "weighted" numbers -- had 12.1% too many Democrats and 6.7% too few Republicans. So this poll, which is stacked to give a net 18.9% advantage to Democrats, is as fake as Anna Nicole's silicone-enhanced bustline.


P.S.: Some arbiters of blogosphere ethics may say that it's wrong to try to lure traffic to a political blog by gaming Google. They might say its unethical to atttract hits from perverts searching for the Pam Anderson sex video or the lesbian kiss between Madonna and Britney. But remember: We want DEMOCRATS to read our blog, too! (And thanks for visiting our blog, Senator Kennedy.)